I am used to it now, what I have decided to call The Curve of Belief. It starts with me proposing something, usually an idea that feels brilliant in my head on day 0, then enthusiastic the first time I narrate it to my immediate family. The idea sounds defensive when their eyes glaze over and they zone out while I am speaking. It becomes whiny and plaintive when I am encountered with what I consider to be irrelevant / stupid questions or even more idiotic suggestions that i should be working, getting a job, doing something useful, you know, rather than ... this.
Time passes, months, sometimes even years. Then what I prophesied happens to pass, and said infidels tell me, "So, you were right." I smile. Because I would have moved on to the next Curve by that time.
We are in one right now, don't you think? I don't believe that we need any more graphs than those that are already going around, or more reporting on the numbers of people infected with the covid-19 virus. Last Friday I declined to attend office and consequently skipped an important client meeting. This was my first project after a year of near-drought work (and money) wise, but when I called my employer that morning I was convinced about the severity of the outbreak, even though in India the infected numbers were in the low double digits. He was kind enough to agree to my wish, although he ended the call with an embarrassed laugh on how "people have pressed the panic button, yeah".
Yeah.
Five days later, here's what things look like in India:
Source: India Today and covidout
As of writing this blogpost, the total number of covid-19 positive cases is reported as varying from 148 to 151 in India on 18 March.
Well, not bad, of course. More people are dying of it in Italy everyday than the total number of positive cases in India. Hurrah! Indian immune system ki jai! Go mutra zindabad! Filth and pollution, thank you!
Except when you put it in a graph.
And then you compare the shape of our graph to that of other countries.
Source: Worldometers.info
Most of them are ahead of us on this deadly bridge. A bridge would be an apt metaphor, because our line graph, which is right now as steep as a dreaded mountain face, should flatten out before it starts reducing (refer China and South Korea above). We are still climbing (like Italy and the US above). Which means: there's lots more to come, folks.
Sure, these numbers cannot be compared, apples-to-apples. India's numbers may also not be indicative of reality, since we have opted to quarantine people at home and only test them if they show symptoms. We have ramped up our testing capability only recently, and the so-called Stage III of the spread, which is when it moves from people with a travel history to affected countries, out into the local community, to people who don't have a travel history or anything to do with the people found to be infected initially. But all this only underscores my earlier point that, in this case, there is a lot more we don't know - about the virus, about the extent of its spread, and its effects - than what we know.
I probably sound ridiculous, with my over-righteous lectures and forwards about "social distancing", mostly over WhatsApp. Heck, I have even started practising social and emotional distancing at home; that's how ingrained this behaviour has become for me.
I also know that I, and my immediate family (which is a rainbow of ages, from a toddler, to adults, to 80+ years old senior citizens and others with pre-existing health conditions) will also get infected. It's only a matter of time. All I want is to get there at the point when the curve has moved downwards, so that they can get admitted to hospital and therefore get the critical care they would most definitely need. Hopefully by then the number of recoveries would also be robust, giving all of us, along with all those who might have contracted it from us, some hope. There is no bigger regret than a tragedy that could have been avoided, but was not because we believed in our genetic immunity, the unhygienic conditions our bodies have adjusted to and the legendary powers of cow pee. I am no analyst, biologist, doctor or an expert on anything. I like to read, to think about what I read, and to understand how it may / can / would apply to me and my life.
This is my take.
Note1: The extensive Medium article that convinced to work from home last week.
Time passes, months, sometimes even years. Then what I prophesied happens to pass, and said infidels tell me, "So, you were right." I smile. Because I would have moved on to the next Curve by that time.
We are in one right now, don't you think? I don't believe that we need any more graphs than those that are already going around, or more reporting on the numbers of people infected with the covid-19 virus. Last Friday I declined to attend office and consequently skipped an important client meeting. This was my first project after a year of near-drought work (and money) wise, but when I called my employer that morning I was convinced about the severity of the outbreak, even though in India the infected numbers were in the low double digits. He was kind enough to agree to my wish, although he ended the call with an embarrassed laugh on how "people have pressed the panic button, yeah".
Yeah.
Five days later, here's what things look like in India:
Source: India Today and covidout
As of writing this blogpost, the total number of covid-19 positive cases is reported as varying from 148 to 151 in India on 18 March.
Well, not bad, of course. More people are dying of it in Italy everyday than the total number of positive cases in India. Hurrah! Indian immune system ki jai! Go mutra zindabad! Filth and pollution, thank you!
Except when you put it in a graph.
And then you compare the shape of our graph to that of other countries.
Source: Worldometers.info
Most of them are ahead of us on this deadly bridge. A bridge would be an apt metaphor, because our line graph, which is right now as steep as a dreaded mountain face, should flatten out before it starts reducing (refer China and South Korea above). We are still climbing (like Italy and the US above). Which means: there's lots more to come, folks.
I probably sound ridiculous, with my over-righteous lectures and forwards about "social distancing", mostly over WhatsApp. Heck, I have even started practising social and emotional distancing at home; that's how ingrained this behaviour has become for me.
I also know that I, and my immediate family (which is a rainbow of ages, from a toddler, to adults, to 80+ years old senior citizens and others with pre-existing health conditions) will also get infected. It's only a matter of time. All I want is to get there at the point when the curve has moved downwards, so that they can get admitted to hospital and therefore get the critical care they would most definitely need. Hopefully by then the number of recoveries would also be robust, giving all of us, along with all those who might have contracted it from us, some hope. There is no bigger regret than a tragedy that could have been avoided, but was not because we believed in our genetic immunity, the unhygienic conditions our bodies have adjusted to and the legendary powers of cow pee. I am no analyst, biologist, doctor or an expert on anything. I like to read, to think about what I read, and to understand how it may / can / would apply to me and my life.
This is my take.
Note1: The extensive Medium article that convinced to work from home last week.